Ivory Coast, the world’s top cashew producer, has raised its projected 2025 cashew output to 1.3 million metric tons, up from an earlier estimate of 1.15 million, amid tighter border controls aimed at curbing smuggling into neighboring countries such as Ghana and Burkina Faso.
The production surge reflects ongoing government efforts to formalize the sector and increase domestic processing. However, the country’s booming cashew industry now faces serious export headwinds, notably from anticipated U.S. tariffs and currency volatility linked to the weakened U.S. dollar.
Vietnamese companies, which typically account for 80% of Ivorian cashew exports, have scaled back purchases significantly in anticipation of U.S. import tariffs of up to 21% on Ivorian agricultural goods. The sudden drop in demand has left an estimated 200,000 tons of cashew nuts in storage, posing a risk of spoilage and income loss for local producers.
“This is a crisis of access, not abundance,” said a spokesperson for the National Cashew Council. “We have the nuts, but no market.”
Industry stakeholders are now calling for urgent government support, including financial relief for smallholders and new trade agreements to diversify export markets. Meanwhile, some traders are pushing for accelerated investment in local processing capacity to reduce reliance on raw nut exports.
The situation underscores the vulnerability of African agricultural exporters to global trade policies and highlights the need for long-term strategies to stabilize commodity-dependent economies.
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